With the property markets now under-going correction from their highs in 2006-2007 across most of the developed world, and savings rates at an all-time low, cash-rich investors are seeking returns on their capital like never before. Gone are the days of investments baked with the expectation of capital growth, investments now need to “stack up” in terms of cashflow from day 1. That’s not to say capital values are being ignored, far from it. Investors increasingly seek stable investments that provide a measurable and regular return. So markets should be in some sort of equilibrium in terms of supply versus demand, and capital values holding steady. In many ways then, conditions are back to normal in many respects for serious portfolio landlords.
So where are yield investors looking today? Working on the ProVenture team, we get to talk to yield investors every day from across the world and it is interesting to pick up on trends in their strategies. We hear about where investors have placed their hard-earned cash in the past, and where and why they are looking to invest in the coming years. Inevitably, many of the investors we speak to are focused on Germany as a place to invest for the coming years as this is our main area of operation as property consultants. But increasingly, we discuss investments in eastern Europe, other parts of western Europe and the USA as viable investment locations.
Let’s look at some different markets and find out what is drawing investors to them at this stage of the economic cycle.
What an interesting market to look at, as we write this piece in August 2010. The USA is the home of raw capitalism, and this harsh approach applies to the property market in much the same way as the money and equity markets. Despite the assets in question being people’s homes and security, they seem exposed to harsh write-downs more than other countries, and this brings sorrow and hardship for those shielding loses and inevitable opportunities for investors.
Taking a historical perspective on the market, we see that the USA has typically had an average level of owner-occupation between 1960-1990 of around 60%. Home ownership was a realistic aspiration for many, but not an imperative like in other markets such as UK or Spain where owner-occupation rates have been as high as 85-90%. This led to, in most locations, a stable market to invest within and a ready supply of short to longer term tenants. The credit bubble of 1996-2006 changed all this.
During the period of low interest rates, sectors of the population who up until then could not aspire to home ownership at their stage of life, if at all, entered the market on “teaser” loans, affordable for the first few years of the loan but become crippling as the loan rates reverted to usual market rates or higher. This greed on lenders parts, and their shocking lack of due diligence into individual’s ability to pay, had a now famous global effect. Currently, 14% of the population are behind on mortgage payments or are in foreclosure. This is an average, and some markets have double this rate. That’s 9 million homes in trouble, double that are households sitting on negative-equity. So where are we now, and is the USA a place worthy of investment research? It is safe to say, the market is still largely bereft of confidence and sharp declines have been felt pretty much across the board. But are there areas that have suffered steeper declines than are justified?
Well, the USA is a huge market. Let’s focus on one city, Orlando [Florida] as a case study.
The Orlando region derives much of its economic power from tourism, business conventions, medial and hi-tech research and the “grey dollar” or those retiring to the warm climes from more northern states or from abroad. The property market has grown with the huge rise in population, up 30% in the last decade alone. Typical in this region have been gated developments and condominiums growing mainly to the south of the city and spreading at an alarming pace in the empty land. The city or downtown area is well-established with some property dating back 100 years or more, broken up only by the high-rise developments which seemed viable during the credit bubble.
Construction of property can be standard construction, or more rapidly built units from pre-fabrication section. Use of wood in structural elements is often seen.
During the credit binge, Orlando was front and centre, financing and constructing homes to service both the local and tourist market. Depending on location and subdivision, property soared 200-300% from 1995-2005, unheard of growth rates in this market which has no scarcity value and seemingly limitless land in which to develop. Commercial development went just as mad. Business plans for “strip malls”, small malls by the road side took off. Some areas of the city boast 10 Taco Bell franchised outlets in a 1km radius. All sectors of the property market, even in downtown locations, could be said to be very over supplied.
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In terms of pricing, let’s look at the price history of a high-end 2-bedroom apartment in the downtown district using the excellent zillo.com tool:
The graph shows that such a unit was being sold off plan in excess of 0k, now priced around 0k [or even cheaper navigating the foreclosure route].
In terms of rental potential, the downtown area enjoys solid demand. Around 00-2000 should be expected per month, bringing a healthly 12% or so yield.
Why would you buy this? Well, the current low capital value is compelling, as is the location of the unit in the downtown area which enjoys some degree of scarcity value. It is an interesting proposition.
Why wouldn’t you buy? Well, considering the lack of confidence in the marketplace, finance will be very difficult for the first few years of the hold. It should be best considered a cash purchase, so the power of leverage is not as easy here. Additionally, it really is not clear where capital values will go, but for a cash investor looking for a sustainable yield, this is a strong option.
Over the last 10 years or so, property markets around the world have experienced rates of capital growth typically between 200-300%, fuelled by cheap and plentiful credit. There are few exceptions to this trend, one of them being Germany. Due to re-unification some 20 years ago, the property market in Germany, particularly in the old east, has been operating out of sync with other markets. Speculation by mainly western German buyers fuelled a boom which ended around 1996. As investors were chasing rents that were not achievable, the German market gave way and went into decline from around 1996 – 2001. This was the same time that most markets around the world experienced their greatest growth rates. Prices have stabilised in most areas from 2001 and shown some capital appreciation in certain areas, particularly the good locations in the bigger cities such as Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Berlin.
Market Features:
The residential market differs considerably from other locations, with more robust tenant laws and longer typical residence times. Typically, a residential unit will be offered for letting totally unfurnished, without kitchen units, light fittings or even flooring. The incoming tenant will provide all their own furnishings and stay for a longer period, typically on average about 7 years. Tenants sign contracts of a defined period but are effectively on a lifetime lease thereafter, only needing to move out if they are not regular with their payments or the landlord (or close family) which to occupy the unit. Tenants must give 3 month’s notice to quit and will repair and decorate the unit to a good condition when vacating.
Finance for Nationals and international buyers is usually set around 60-80% loan to value. The level of finance depending on the client’s income and the rental value of the property. Typical interest rates are fixed for 5 or 10 years and around 1.3% above the Euro 5 or 10 year swap rate. So at present rates are around 3% for a 5 year fix and 3.8% for a 10 year fix.
Typical Prices:
Property, both commercial and residential tends to be priced per sqm and not by room or bedroom number. Therefore, investments can be easily compared by size, price and location. Residential property can be purchased either on a single basis or by purchasing a complete block of apartments. Purchasing a complete block tends to reduce the price per sqm paid. Some typical prices per sqm in the major cities, depending on size and location:
Berlin – 1.000 – 2.000 Eur psm
Frankfurt – 2.500 – 4.000 Eur psm
Munich – 3.500 – 5.000 Eur psm
Locations to the east of Germany (Dresden, Leipzig, Chemnitz for example) have properties in a good refurbished condition from 500 Eur psm. Remarkable value and the most undervalues market in the world according to the OECD. Location in terms of sustainability of rent is crucial in these locations.
As an example apartment block, below is a unit in Leipzig with 19 apartments. The purchase price is 420k euro and a yield of around 12% net is achieved.
Typical Yields:
In the same way that property is marketed for sale, rental property is priced per sqm. The rental is often broken down in to “cold” and “warm” rent, with the cold rent being the income to the investor and the warm rent covering all bills including ground tax and routine property maintenance. Cold rents start at around 4 Eur psm in the very cheapest parts of cities to the east of Germany with cold rents in cities such as Munich reaching 12 Eur psm and above in many cases. Yields range between around 5% for single apartments in Munich, Frankfurt and Hamburg to around 10-12% when bought as a block in cities such as Dresden, Leipzig and Chemnitz. Berlin offers the complete range of yields and is a very diverse market.
Running Costs:
Costs during ownership are transparent and are comparatively low. The majority of deductions to run the property are taken from the “warm rent” or ancillary cost and should not be included in yield calculations. This includes basic building maintenance, communal area cleaning, buildings insurance and property tax. From the net rent, apart from unplanned maintenance, the cost of letting management is the primary deduction. There are a variety of fee structures for letting management including a flat fee per apartment or a percentage of the rent collected. Letting management typically costs between 5-10% of net rents, depending on area and fee structure chosen.
Positive Investment Aspects:
Hands-off investment – long-term tenants, unfurnished propertyletting
Well regulated and robust tenant and property management practices
High rental yields possible, to fit all investor types
Good finance available, at competitive levels of interest
Reliable legal and land registry system
Transparent running costs
Negative Investment Aspects:
Robust tenant laws – a tenant cannot just be removed unless they do not pay rent
High purchase costs (between 10-12%)
High yielding properties can be subject to a forced sell and can be problematic to deliver
View on Market:
Very good yields, underpinned by strong legal system and high levels of finance. Capital values very low in comparison with anywhere in the developed world. Truly unfurnished property allows for significant holdings to be built up in a relatively “hands-off” manner.
In terms of property in Europe, beyond Germany, yield investors have very few options. Markets are either stable but producing yields in the 3-6% range, or falling in capital value and difficult to predict the floor. Markets across the Eurozone and UK have a few years to run you would say before re-entering the market for yield and stability in capital value. Places that have experienced huge capital falls, but stabilise well in the coming years [with increasing wages as a key index] should be kept in mind. The following locations could be worth noting in years to come, with capital falls experienced in last 3 years:
Lithuania [Vilinus, Kaunas] – 55% price fall
Latvia [Riga] – 70% price fall
Ukraine, Kiev – 55% price fall
Further afield, yields on 8%+ can be found in: Sao Paolo, Brazil 8.1%
Santiago, Chile 8.7%
Jakarta, Indonesia 11.1%
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 8.7%
The diligence here should include analysis of finance availability, interest rates payable and currency stability. No good getting a 10% yield when the interest rate is 12%, or if the currency weakens significantly during the period of your hold.